Trading day review for ES.
ES was relatively quiet today. We had Overlapping to Higher value with small volume right inside the 19 day balance.
On hindsight we had two good trades today and I must admit that I saw only one as the market was developing today. But It is nice to show these trades backed with Market Profile structure evidence. This is what we call Ruling reason and it is extremely difficult to grasp when first face with it.
Today was a dream day for trading crude oil as the market offered two distinct nice trends. Down in the morning and up in the afternoon.
Two great trades were signaled , a short in the morning and a long at midday.
First we opened in balance inside yesterday value. Again this indicated that the expected opportunity and risk should be small. It turned out to be much more interesting in terms of volatility and opportunities.
Here is the context before the open :
Long and intermediate trend are up ( weekly and monthly bar charts ).
Short term in balance ( 106.93 - 105.11 )
Overnight inventory was neutral.
Poor high from yesterday indicating that the market was too long as of yesterday's close.
We had anomalies from yesterday profile aroud 105.90-106.00 and 106.25-106.35 levels.
Yesterday's afternoon pullback low indicating possible change was at 106.02.
Today was Wednesday the day that they report the oil inventory number. As I said in a previous article I do not recommend trading oil the day that they release the oil inventory because the volatility is extremely high which makes reading the auctions extremely difficult.
If you decide to trade anyway I would suggest that you split your profile starting a new profile at the letter D or the period from 10:30 to 11:00 ET. That way I trade before the number , get flat for the number and start trading again the new profile after 11:00 ET.