Trading day review for ES.
ES was relatively quiet today. We had overlapping to higher value with small volume right inside the 19 day balance.
On hindsight we had two good trades today and I must admit that I saw only one as the market was developing today. But it is nice to show these trades backed with Market Profile structure evidence. This is what we call Ruling Reason and it is extremely difficult to grasp when first face with it.
The first good trade was at the start of D period. A short right below yesterday's high.
What did we have at that time ?
First we had a very prominent POC from yesterday which was acting as a magnet for the market . It just puts the odds a little bit more on the short side.
Furthermore we had a poor low yesterday which shows weakness. The odds of being revisited decrease the chance of continuation up. Finally we hesitated and rejected yesterday's high when D opened below this reference.
All these factors where to be analysed in conjunction with the fact that we were one timeframing up with developing value higher at the time of the setup. This set up was a good one because of odds and small stop ( somewhere above yesterday's high ) with good reward potential. The other extreme of yesterday's range -- the poor low.
The second opportunity ( the one I missed because of my fixation on yesterday's poor low ) was when we started one timeframing up in G period rejecting the Prominent POC from yesterday. The reason favoring the long side was that we were now one timeframing up with higher developing value. Prominent POC had been revisited at that time and even rejected. We also traded just shy of the poor low target.
Overall that was not an easy market to trade and the focus at the open should have been centered around yesterday' high and prominent POC.