Trading Day for June 26 2014

June 2014
by Bernard Larouche
Category: Balance

6/26/2014 (EST)

Trading Day for June 26 2014

Today was a dream day for trading crude oil as the market offered two distinct nice trends. Down in the morning and up in the afternoon.

Two great trades were signaled , a short in the morning and a long at midday.

First we opened in balance inside yesterday value. Again this indicated that the expected opportunity and risk should be small. It turned out to be much more interesting in terms of volatility and opportunities. 

Here is the context before the open :

Long and intermediate trend are up ( weekly and monthly bar charts ).

Short term in balance ( 106.93 - 105.11 )

Overnight inventory was neutral.

Poor high from yesterday indicating that the market was too long as of yesterday's close.

We had anomalies from yesterday profile aroud 105.90-106.00 and 106.25-106.35 levels.

Yesterday's afternoon pullback low indicating possible change was at 106.02.


At the open we saw no conviction or confidence on the up side. More conviction on down side but the tempo was really slow in the first period. We trade at the pullback low once in A period and we finally traded and accepted price below yesterday's pullback low in B period indicating a bias for the down side. The first trade was the breakout of A period low which was below the pullback low with yesterday's low as a destination for this trade. The move down was so strong and with confidence that no exit was even considered. The tempo was really fast and the volume and range for that period exceeded more than 1.5 standard deviation from the average for that period of the day as reported by the VTI text box stats from Market Map. When we traded and accepted price below yesterday's low, the daily balance low as well as last week low was the next destination (105.11). One timeframing down was well on its way , developing value was lower and POC was migrating down. The exit should now follow the previous bar high + 2 ticks.


When we traded down to the major reference of 105.11 that level was rejected and found no acceptance below it. The second opportunity came in G period when we could not trade below the major reference. From there we started a new trend one timeframing up until the close. POC followed price starting to migrate higher indicating a sustained rally is underway.

A trend day when recognized for what it is and well executed is a dream for traders. Today we had two trends which was even better. I wish we could have these kind of days more often !

We finish the day with lower value but the volume was on the light side.




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